Penn State has moved up to No. The case where they were off the most was when they had the fewest games. Heres how ESPNs Football Power Index (FPI) projects the outcome of each of the 13 Week 2 games featuring SEC teams: FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. Each teams season is simulated 10,000 times to produce its chance to win its division, win its conference, make the playoffs, win the Super Bowl (NFL), pick any slot in the NFL draft, and more. NFL wild-card round playoff game picks, schedule guide, bold - ESPN.com Top draft prospect Carter charged in fatal crash - espn.com Which idea matters more: strength of schedule or margin of victory? Here's how ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) projects the outcome of each of the 13 Week 2 games featuring SEC teams: Auburn (99.9 percent chance to win) vs. Alabama State; and our Margin of victory doesnt get discussed as much as strength of schedule. Seasonal effects: Over the last five seasons, offenses have contributed about 1.8 points per game to their net scoring margins in the first six weeks, but as the temperature (and offenses) cooled, the league-wide offensive EPA per game dropped to 1.0 points per game in the final six weeks of the season. The quarterback factor is adjusted for the probability that the quarterback will start, injuries, rookies, and trades. Raw margin of victory. And because they update those projections each week, Ill look at how well theyve adjusted those projections (weekly predictions). Does anyone know or have records showing the FPI's accuracy in predicting game matchups? In the preseason, FPI uses a number of predictive factors to project future team strength. I use a similar ensemble method in the college football rankings and predictions for members of The Power Rank, and I most often check my results with those of Massey-Peabody.

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