Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction The Good Judgment Project was first developed as an entry into a competition for accurately forecasting geopolitical events, which was being hosted by The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity.12Despite the impressive competition, The Good Judgment Project won the tournament. American Political Science Review, 95, 829-843. Opening story: Teacher Erin McCarthy assigned her 8th grade students a textbook from 1940 to see if they accepted the information without question or if they noticed any problematic anachronisms. Question Certainty - Harvard Business Review We dont just hesitate to rethink our answers. Researchers in the 20th century reported similar findings: patients unaware of their situation and unable to learn from experience. How Can We Know? The forecasters were 284 experts from a variety of fields, including government officials, professors, journalists, and others, with many opinions, from Marxists to free-marketeers. Superforecasting by Penguin Random House. That said, its hard to knock a book that preaches the importance of curiosity, open-mindedness, flexible thinking and empathy. We risk overemphasizing pleasure at the expense of purpose. Counterfactual thought experiments: Why we can't live with them and how we must learn to live with them. In collaboration with Greg Mitchell and Linda Skitka, Tetlock has conducted research on hypothetical societies and intuitions about justice ("experimental political philosophy"). Plan ahead to determine where they can find common ground. Additionally, companies can enroll in virtual workshops to boost their forecasting capabilities.14. [28], Tetlock has a long-standing interest in the tensions between political and politicized psychology. Brief (Eds. philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politician2nd battalion, 4th field artillery regiment.